Possible Recession & Out-Of-Position Grain
Well yesterday we started a conversation, a two-day discussion, with Randy Blach. He is the CEO for CattleFax. He told us he was confident in the beef industry saying better market conditions are down the road partially just because the size of this U.S. cattle herd has been on the decline. So how tight are supplies going to get?
“I didn’t think we would have to revisit these levels, but we don’t have much rain in the western corn belt regions, and you look at Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, we didn’t get much dryland crop. That all ended up being chopped, we are out of position and where we need the grain, we don’t have it.”
And then there’s that “R” word - recession. Blach gave his thoughts on what that looks like on a cattle industry perspective…
“We very well may end up in some sort of a recession when it is all said and done, but I don’t believe a recession is going to trump the higher price trends that we see unfolding here over the next two to three years. These are significantly smaller supplies that we are going to be dealing with in ’23 and ’24 and ’25.”
Again CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.