Smaller U.S. winter wheat crop forecast but larger production in PNW
Farm and Ranch May 12, 2010 The USDA’s first estimate of U.S. winter wheat production for 2010 pegs the crop at 1.46 billion bushels, down four percent from 2009. The national average yield is forecast to be up this year but harvested acres are down eight percent. Winter wheat production in the Pacific Northwest is forecast at 216 million bushels, up 11 percent from 2009. That production is based on yield forecasts of 85 bushels an acre in Idaho, 61 bushels in Washington and 59 bushels an acre in Oregon where total production is estimated at a 12 year high. By class, USDA sees white winter wheat production up seven percent this year, most of which is soft white. Hard red production is estimated to increase five percent while soft red winter wheat is forecast to drop 30 percent from 2009. Despite smaller U.S. and world wheat production in 2010 USDA still sees ending stocks growing with U.S. carryover a year from now at 997 million bushels. Jon Marcus of LakeFront Futures and Options says outside markets could cause some wheat rallies, but otherwise there is not much reason for new crop wheat to go up. Marcus: “As far as what we‘ve got carryout numbers, growing conditions, I see a flat year. You know maybe a 30-40 cent range. At least through the summer.” USDA forecasts a national average price for 2010 wheat of $4.60 a bushel, which compares to this past year’s $4.90 I’m Bob Hoff and that’s the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on Northwest Aginfo Net. ? ? ? ?
