06/03/08 Record ag export forecast

BANGE "Astounding. Just absolutely amazing." Terms used to describe US agricultural exports for this fiscal year. I'm Bill Scott. Back in a minute with the numbers on Today's Idaho Ag News. Agricultural Outlook Board chairman Gerald Bange doesn't toss around a lot of superlatives but he did with the release of USDA's last agricultural export forecast numbers. Banger says for the fiscal year they expect to see 108.5 billion dollars in ag exports, an increase of 7.5 billion from their last forecast. Yes record commodity prices and the weaker US dollar are contributing factors in the highest ag export forecast ever but Bange sees other factors at play. BANGE "One is that if you look around the world right now you'll see a lot of trade restrictions in place, countries such India, Vietnam, Argentina, Ukraine have all had export restrictions this past year and basically that means that we have been perhaps single and perhaps the most reliable supplier in many cases whereas other countries have cut off exports." If this forecast holds up the US will have an ag trade surplus this year of 30 billion dollars. BANGE "It wasn't too many years ago frankly that we were beginning to worry about this surplus actually turning negative. We had dropped to as low as 4.6 billion dollars in 2006 and then began to recover. I did not think that we would see this kind of recovery." Today's Idaho Ag News Bill Scott