Forecast for another cool spring in the PNW

Washington Ag Today February 2, 2011 You have to go back to the World War I era to find a La Nina stronger than the one currently influencing Pacific Northwest weather. Dr. Art Douglas, Professor Emeritus of the Atmospheric Science Department at Creighton University, gave his forecast for 2011 at the Pacific Northwest Farm Forum in Spokane yesterday. He said the current La Nina is the strongest since 1917-1918.

Douglas: “As long as that thing continues then we ought to have cool temperatures throughout the Pacific Northwest well into the early summer, which is going to slow down on the snow melt. And with the storm track dipping down through the Pacific Northwest, precipitation ought to stay pretty close to normal if in some areas not above normal. As we go into the early summer with those cool temperatures grazing conditions should be ideal because we are not going to dry up the area as quickly. And the winter wheat crop in the region should be in ideal shape.”

Douglas says analogue years to what 2011 may be like are 1955, 56, 63, 71 and 1976. What he doesn’t see happening this summer is for La Nina to turn into El Nino.

Douglas: “It looks like there is only about a 25% chance for El Nino in this upcoming summer. And then the real big bet is that El Nino will come in here sometime in the spring of 2012 and then going into the winter of 2012-2013.”

An El Nino of course could bring drought conditions to the PNW.

I’m Bob Hoff and that’s Washington Ag Today on Northwest Aginfo Net.