Winter Weather Outlook Pt 2

Winter Weather Outlook Pt 2

Bob Larson
Bob Larson
With today’s Fruit Grower Report, I’m Bob Larson. What kind of weather should we be expecting this winter? That’s the million-dollar question we face every year, right?

University of Washington professor AND state climatologist Nick Bond says this year will be slightly less predictable thanks to a couple of missing ques …

BOND … “We don’t have El Nino or La Nina to stack the deck toward either warmer or colder temperatures than usual and lesser or greater snowpack than usual. And so, we don’t have that to go on and the predictability this winter is less than those winters when we have an El Nino or a La Nina.”

But, Bond says one of the things they look at when making predictions is the average climate numbers …

BOND … “Another thing is kind of recent trends and so if the last, let’s say, ten or fifteen years have been on the warm side then, well, that’s what’s been happening and no reason to think it will necessarily turn around. It could, but that’s been shown to give some measure of predictability.”

And increasingly, Bond says they use seasonal climate models …

BOND … “They’re, as a group, are showing a little bit on the warm side overall with plenty of variability from week to week and month to month within the Winter and maybe a little bit on the wet side.”

So, Bond says take that with a “bucket” of salt, but they are guardedly optimistic about their mildly wetter and warmer prediction.

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