El Nino's Arrival Maybe Delayed Until Late Summer
Douglas says all the global models are all indicating gradual warming and that there is a 50 percent possibility of El Nino arriving in 2014 which means drier weather for the Pacific Northwest -- the good news is that he expects it to arrive next summer rather than spring -- which will provide moisture in the spring.
Douglas: "What is interesting is the models are kind of holding off now on the warming in the spring -- that is good for the Northwest. If the El Nino doesn't try to pop up real soon then this other phenomena of the warmer water off shore that is going to eventually develop come the winter. It's going to let us have that wet spring -- at least in the northern half of the wheat areas. The models all indicate that the real thrust towards El Nino will be more towards June and July. As that takes place then, it is interesting that the United States tends to be cooler and wetter in the Mid-West and it tends to be a little warmer in the Western United States with developing El Nino. So by the time when we got to the end of the summer with an El Nino we would expect warmer, drier weather here in the Northwest -- which would be ideal for harvest. Unfortunately if you take it a little further El Nino years are dry in the Northwest. So next fall, if we have a El Nino then we are likely to see a dry fall going into a dry winter."